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Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Why US rateobal impacts have a gl

Why US rateobal impacts have a gl




US central bankers have raised a key interest rate again this week, lifting the bank's benchmark rate to its highest level since 2008.
The US Federal Reserve raised the target federal funds rate by 0.25%, taking it to 1.75% to 2%.
The rise marks the Fed's seventh rate increase since 2015.
Officials aim to head off excessive inflation with higher rates and think the US economy can handle higher borrowing costs.
They are also shrinking the Fed's massive holdings of government debt and mortgage-backed securities, which were purchased to lift the economy out of the recession that ran from late 2007 to 2009.
So what impact is the shift in policy having?

Global pain

Some of the most dramatic effects have appeared in emerging markets, as higher US rates lure back investors who in recent years had looked for returns abroad.

The retreat from emerging markets remains relatively modest, with weekly flows to bond and equity funds down less than 10% from their peaks, according to EPFR Global, part of research firm Informa.
But it has coincided with - and partially fuelled - a stronger dollar, contributing to currency crises in countries such as Argentina, Turkey and Brazil.
It has also prompted central banks elsewhere, including in Indonesia, Malaysia and Hong Kong, to raise their own interest rates in defence.
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Countries that have seen the worst market turmoil have also faced political and financial problems of their own.
But the Fed may be underestimating its role, said Desmond Lachman, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former head of emerging market strategy Salomon Smith Barney.
He pointed to recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell that the power of US interest rates is "often exaggerated".
If the turbulence persists, it could hurt economies abroad, eventually reducing demand for US products and services, he added.





"Fed tightening is causing all sorts of problems for many emerging market countries and those problems can then come back to impact the US," he said. The Fed "should be focused on it, but I don't know how much it is".

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